扶搖直上

Blink

轉: 欧债危机解药：选通胀，弃紧缩 From the U.S., the European debt crisis can seem like a black comedy populated by regional stereotypes: iron-fisted Anglo-Saxons, feckless Mediterraneans, and haughty Brussels bureaucrats. Closer to the action, it isn't funny at all. In the words of Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, Europe is "tearing itself apart with no obvious solution." Pending the second Greek election on June 17, it is hard to make predictions. Many commentators see a Greek exit from the euro as the precursor to a broader breakup. In Brussels some EU veterans argue the opposite. They say that once the euro family has ejected Greece, which has always been a problem child, it will come closer together and forge ahead. Until now, my inclination has been that the Europeans would muddle through, with or without the Greeks. But for that to happen, the continent must find a way to kick-start growth. Austerity has failed miserably. Outside of Germany, the continent is mired in recession. In seeking to slash their way to a balanced budget, all too many countries have fallen victim to the vicious circle that Keynesian economists warned about: When government spending is cut, demand slumps, firms lay off more workers, unemployment increases, tax revenue falls, and the deficit remains stubbornly high. Many academic economists favor abandoning the euro (or restricting it to Germany and a few other core countries) because that would allow nations like Ireland and Portugal, and even Italy and Spain, to devalue their currencies and give their exporters a boost. That looks good on paper. But a disorderly breakup of the euro would create financial chaos. There would be bank runs, stock market collapses, more political instability, and quite possibly another global recession. A less drastic option would be a Europe-wide fiscal stimulus, with spending focused on the periphery countries. François Hollande, the new French President, supports the idea, and Angela Merkel, in an interview with CNBC, suggested she was open to it. But even if a stimulus program materialized, it would be modest and temporary. To really get Europe back on track, it would need to be combined with permanent debt write-offs designed to bring the financial burdens of the periphery countries down to more manageable levels. Debt remains at the root of the problem. If Greece's second bailout, which was agreed upon in March, had worked as planned, the country would have emerged with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 160%, and the interest on that debt would have consumed one in five tax dollars into the indefinite future. Ireland, which has done everything its debtors demanded, is in a similar bind. No wonder voters have tired of austerity. If the German public won't countenance forgiving debtors, another solution will have to be found. The obvious one is printing money and inflating away some of the bad debt. In extending a trillion euros of cheap loans to troubled European banks earlier this year, the European Central Bank averted an immediate crisis. Now Mario Draghi, the ECB president and my pick for 2012's Person of the Year, needs to turn the money hose back on to douse the fire that will ensue if Greece crashes out of the euro and to tackle the broader debt problem. He could mimic the Fed and buy government bonds. He could resume his bank-lending program, which is an indirect form of quantitative easing. And he could issue loans to the EU bailout funds, which would use them to finance further debt restructurings. (For that to happen, the bailout funds would have to be granted a banking license.) Such policies, if they were adhered to, would eventually lead to a fall in the euro and a rise in inflation, which would be all to the good. History demonstrates that inflation, rather than austerity, is the best way to deal with a debt mountain. 在美国看来，欧债危机就像是由地域特色鲜明的老套人物扮演的一场荒诞喜剧：吝啬的盎格鲁撒克逊人、不负责任的地中海人以及盛气凌人的布鲁塞尔官僚。如果置身其中，这可一点也不好笑。用英格兰银行（Bank of England）行长默文•金恩的话讲，欧洲正在“分崩离析，看不到显而易见的解决方案”。 由于6月17日的第二次希腊大选尚未进行，现在很难做出预测。很多评论人士认为，希腊退出欧元区将成为欧盟大范围瓦解的前奏。在布鲁塞尔，一些欧盟资深人士的看法则正好相反。他们认为，一旦欧元大家庭将总是惹事生非的坏小子希腊驱逐出去，欧元区将能更紧密地融合在一起，稳步前行。到现在为止，我倾向于认为不管希腊是否留下，欧洲人应该都能应付得过去。如果希腊退出，欧元区将必须想办法如何启动经济增长。 紧缩政策已经一败涂地。除了德国，整个欧洲大陆已陷入衰退。为谋求预算平衡而大幅缩减开支，有太多国家卷入了凯恩斯主义经济学家警告的恶性循环：当政府缩减开支，需求出现下降，公司进行更多裁员，失业率上升，税收减少，而预算赤字却依然顽固地居高不下。 很多学术派经济学家赞成放弃欧元（或将其改为仅由德国和欧洲其他核心经济体采用的货币），允许爱尔兰、葡萄牙、甚至意大利和西班牙将本国货币贬值，从而拉动出口。纸上谈兵的话，这个方案听起来还不错。但欧元区的无序瓦解将引发金融混乱，导致银行挤兑、股市崩盘、更多的政局动荡，并很可能引发新一轮的全球衰退。 一个更温和的选择是全欧洲范围内的财政刺激措施，支出侧重外围成员国家。新任法国总统弗朗西斯•奥朗德支持这一想法。德国总理安格拉•默克尔在接受消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）电视采访时表示，她对此持开放态度。不过，即便实施刺激方案，效果可能也只是暂时的、有限的。要让欧洲重回增长通道，必须进行永久性的债务免除，将外围经济体的债务负担降至更可控的水平。 债务仍是问题之源。如果3月份签署的第二轮希腊救助方案能按照计划，一步步实现，希腊原本应该已经走出困境——但当前希腊的债务/GDP比率仍超过160%，光是为这些债务支付利息就会消耗掉五分之一的税收收入，这种日子会持续多久仍未可知。完全按债权人要求来做的爱尔兰，情况也没好多少。难怪选民们已经对紧缩政策丧失了兴趣。 如果德国公众不支持免除债务，就需要另寻办法。最显而易见的就是印钞，通过通胀来化解部分坏账。今年早些时候，欧洲央行（European Central Bank）为陷入困境的众多欧洲银行提供了1万亿欧元的低息贷款，避免了一场迫在眉睫的危机。如今，欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉（我心中的2012年度人物人选）需要再度打开资金龙头来灭火（确保即使希腊退出欧元区，也不会殃及整个欧元区），从而应对更大范围的债务问题。他可以效法美联储（Fed）购买公债；可以恢复央行对商业银行的低息贷款计划，作为间接的宽松货币政策；也可以为欧洲救助基金提供贷款，为进一步的债务重组提供资金（要做到这一点，救助基金必须要获得银行牌照。) 这些政策如果得以贯彻，最终将导致欧元贬值、通胀上升，但这些都是有益的。历史证明，通胀（而不是紧缩）才是应对如山债务的最好办法。 译者：早稻米

focus

是時候入一些貨.... 行動了?

扶摇直上

五

穷六绝七翻身有木有？

Blink

扶摇直上: 五

穷六绝七翻身有木有？

等待時機.....

focus

五窮六盡七翻身。。。哈哈。 扶搖直上，候著幾個月。想出擊了。 雖說幾時都有機會。但依家資訊快！ 投資者一聽到乜，反應快。有時太過度。 看上星期五。一單歐洲會議有好决定啫，個市 剌激上揚。油價升$7.+/桶。 樂觀！ 但仍潛伏太多危機了！ 哈哈。危機中搵錢。

focus

入了些油基金指數（介）油價星期五一跳。幾好。 找機會古出一些。

focus

加拿大兩間高科技公司做錯乜呢？ 首先：北訊NT （害到我死死氣，） 依家：bb黑梅。（幸好冇持已久） A生，你手上有冇？

Blink

focus: 加拿大兩間高科技公司做錯乜呢？ 首先：北訊NT （害到我死死氣，） 依家：bb黑梅。（幸好冇持已久） A生，你手上有冇？

呵呵，黑莓與苹果，A生后園都有....focus喜歡哪種？

Blink

FW: 科技股投资者面临残酷盛夏 Summertime may be when the living is easy for many people, but not for tech investors this year. As the time draws near for many companies to report their second-quarter earnings, a last-minute sense of unease is setting in among investors and analysts. Since investors returned from their 4th of July holidays, the Nasdaq Composite has lost 4%, while many of the bigger names in tech have lost even more. Microsoft (MSFT) is down 6%, while IBM (IBM) and Cisco (CSCO) are off 7% and Intel (INTC) has fallen 8%. In most cases, the declines have been accompanied by analysts warning of a weaker second-quarter than they had previously expected. And things aren't looking much better for the rest of the year. Thursday morning, IT-outsourcing giant Infosys (INFY) fell 12% after the company warned that business would slow down in the second half of 2012, citing the loss of big contracts among banks and other companies. "The environment today for us is more challenging than what it was in April," said Infosys CEO S. D. Shitulal. There isn't one overriding reason for the recent round of tech jitters, but several. The financial turmoil that plagued Europe in the quarter, along with the cooling of China's economy; the rise of disruptive technologies that are hurting big tech companies that have been slow to adapt; and the tendency of analysts to be optimistic in times of uncertainty. The largest tech companies have long been dependent on global markets, but in the second quarter, every major market faced challenges. Economic growth showed signs of stalling in the U.S., while China's economy cooled. But the biggest concern was in the European Union, whereunemployment rose to 11% and some countries slipped back into recession. EU leaders have dragged their feet in solving the debt crisis, prolonging a sense of uncertainty among companies and prompting consumers to hold back on buying new gadgets. A survey by Computer Economics found that 31% of companies surveyed are planning to cut operational IT spending in the coming year, against 16% that plan to spend more. To shore up profits, companies are cutting costs, and that includes money for new technology. A separate report from Gartner said that global IT spending would rise incrementally to $3.6 trillion in 2012 from $3.5 trillion last year. Gartner noted that spending on some areas of tech will see more growth than others: Cloud computing, for example will receive $109 billion in IT spending this year, up from $91 billion in 2011. While that's good news for cloud companies, it's not necessarily good for other tech giants. Companies are spending on cloud technologies because it can be more efficient and cheaper than installing and maintaining older software systems. But money spent on lower-cost cloud systems means money not spent on proprietary software, which is often more expensive. Companies like Oracle (ORCL) and IBM are investing in cloud computing, even if it risks cannibalizing their older programs. A similar kind of disruption is happening in the PC industry, an area where companies and consumers spend heavily. When people are buying PCs they are buying tablets or low-cost PCs from Asian companies. Overall, PC shipments fell 0.1% in the second quarter from the same quarter in 2011, to 87.5 million, according to Gartner. For U.S. makers, the fall was much worse: HP (HPQ) and Dell (DELL) both shipped 12% fewer PCs in the second quarter. These are not the kind of numbers to encourage investors into believing tech stocks will post strong earnings. Already some of them have been signaling that investors shouldn't get too excited. In the past week, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Informatica (INFA) warned of disappointing earnings. According to Factset, 24 companies in the S& 500 issued negative guidance for the second quarter, 50% more than the five-year average. And if that's not worrying, consider this. Factset estimates that tech stocks in the S& 500 will post earnings growth of 3.6% for the quarter. While that's higher than the 3% rate for all of the S& 500, it's all Apple (AAPL). Exclude Apple's expected earnings growth and average tech earnings will fall 2%. There's even concern over Apple's earnings. The cannibalization of laptops by tablets may be eating into sales of big-ticket Macbooks, an analyst at BMO Capital said. Other analysts are concerned that, with the release of a LTE-friendly iPhone all but assured this fall, many Apple loyalists are waiting to buy iPhones, slowing sales for the next several months. Another potential factor is that analysts in general tend to lean toward optimism in earnings forecasts. They often rely on the guidance from companies, and corporate managers are loathe to telegraph bad news - like the Infosys warning – until they are absolutely sure of a slowdown. If more warnings of a slowdown follow, expect a round of hearty downward revisions of tech earnings in general. For investors, there are a couple of silver linings in the event of a tech slowdown. Longer-term, tech remains a strong sector: Companies can only cut back on IT for so long without hurting their own competitive edge. And there remain some key areas of strength. Companies active in mobile and cloud computing, for example, are doing much better than PC makers and chip manufacturers. For tech investors in general, however, the next few weeks of earnings reports could be a volatile ride.

对于许多人来说，夏季可能意味着惬意的生活，但对今年的科技股投资者来说就不是那么回事了。由于许多公司即将公布第二季度收益报告，最后一刻的不安情绪在许多投资者和分析师心里油然而生。

自从7月4日独立日假日归来后，投资者见证了纳斯达克综合指数累计4%的跌幅，与此同时，科技类股中的许多大牌跌幅更大。微软公司（Microsoft）下跌6%，IBM和思科（Cisco）均下跌7%，而英特尔（Intel）跌幅则达到了8%。在大多数情况下，科技类股的下跌都伴随着分析师发布的相关公司第二季度业绩可能弱于此前预期的预警。

今年余下的时间，形势似乎也不会明显好转。周四早盘，IT外包巨头印孚瑟斯（Infosys）的股价下跌12%。此前该公司称，其业务会在2012年下半年放缓，因来自银行和其他企业的大订单流失。印孚瑟斯首席执行官史布莱说：“目前公司面临的运营环境比4月份时更为严峻。”

最近这一波围绕科技股的担忧情绪并不是由某个单一主要因素造成的，而是几个因素共同导致的：第二季度拖累欧洲经济的金融动荡以及中国经济放缓；颠覆性技术的崛起打击了适应迟缓的大型科技公司；以及分析师们在不确定时期的偏乐观倾向。

规模居前的科技类公司长期以来一直依赖全球市场，但在第二季度，主要市场都无一例外地面临挑战。美国经济增长出现停滞的迹象，而中国经济也继续降温。但最令人担忧的还是欧盟。欧盟的失业率已经升至11%，部分成员国更是已经再次陷入经济衰退。

欧盟领导人在解决债务危机方面一直行动拖沓，导致企业界的不确定性情绪挥之不去，并促使许多消费者纷纷暂停购买新产品。根据研究机构Computer Economics进行的一项调查结果，31%的受访公司计划在未来一年削减IT运营支出，而只有16%的受访公司计划提高相关支出。为了保障利润，企业纷纷削减包括新技术开支在内的各项成本。

另外，全球IT研究和咨询公司盖特纳（Gartner）的一份报告显示，全球IT支出可能会由去年的3.5万亿美元逐步增至2012年的3.6万亿美元。盖特纳指出，特定科技领域的支出增长将会领先其他领域。例如，今年云计算领域的IT支出将达到1,090亿美元，高于2011年的910亿美元。

虽然这对于云计算企业是个利好消息，但对于其他科技巨头来说并不一定是好苗头。企业在云计算技术上投入资金是因为其较安装和维护传统软件系统更加高效、经济。但将资金投在更低成本的云系统上则意味着：投入在往往更加昂贵的自有软件上的相关资金将会减少。包括甲骨文公司（Oracle）和IBM在内的企业都在投资云计算，即使这样做可能意味着牺牲在传统程序上的投资。

在企业和消费者支出显著的个人电脑行业，类似的颠覆也在发生。如今，人们在购买个人电脑时往往选择购买平板电脑或亚洲企业生产的低成本个人电脑。盖特纳提供的数据显示，总体上，第二季度个人电脑发货量较上年同期下滑了0.1%，已经减少到8,750万台。对于美国制造商来说，下滑幅度要严重得多：惠普电脑（HP）和戴尔电脑（Dell）第二季度的个人电脑发货量均同比下跌了12%。

面对这样的发货量数据，投资者很难相信科技类股会公布强劲的收益报告。事实上，有些公司已经发出预警，告诫投资者不要过于乐观。上周，高级微设备公司（Advanced Micro Devices）、美国应用材料公司（Applied Materials）和Informatica都发布了盈利可能不及预期的预警。金融数据和软件提供商Factset称，标准普尔500指数（S& 500）成分股公司中，已经有24家公司发布了负面的第二季度收益预期（即预计收益低于当前分析师的一致预期），较5年平均值高50%。

如果这些还不足以让人担忧的话，再看看下面这组数据。Factset预计，标准普尔500指数成分股中的科技类公司第二季度收益增幅将达到3.6%。虽然这比标准普尔500指数所有成分股公司3%的收益增幅要高，但完全要归功于苹果公司（Apple）。若不计入苹果公司的预期收益增幅，其他科技公司的平均收益将下跌2%。

甚至有人担心苹果公司的盈利。BMO Capital的一位分析师称，平板电脑销量对笔记本电脑销量的侵蚀可能正在负面影响高价MacBook笔记本的销量。其他分析师则担心，由于兼容LTE网络的iPhone在今年秋季上市已经几乎板上钉钉，许多苹果拥趸都在等待购买这款新iPhone，可能会放缓iPhone在未来几个月的销量。

另一个需要考虑的潜在因素是，分析师的收益预期总体上仍然偏乐观。他们通常要依赖企业提供的自身业绩预期进行预测，而企业管理层在不能完全肯定业务是否会放缓时通常不愿意向外界透露利空消息（譬如印孚瑟斯的业绩预警）。如果接下来更多公司发布业绩放缓预警，总体上分析师们将会对科技类股的收益预期展开新一轮的下调。 就算科技行业真的放缓增长，投资者还是能在黑暗中看到一些希望。从中长期来看，科技行业仍然强势：企业要削减IT开支必须保证不伤及自身的竞争优势。同时，一些关键领域仍然焕发着勃勃生机。例如，活跃在移动和云计算领域的企业比个人电脑制造商和芯片制造商的业绩表现要好得多。 不过，总体而言，未来几周的收益报告可能会伴随着科技股股价的震荡。 译者：默默

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[quote]Blink: FW: 科技股投资者面临残酷盛夏 朋友們的高見又如何？請....